Summary

Significant fighting continued throughout the week in North Kivu between the M23/RDF and the DRC government coalition. The attack over the weekend on the Goma Airport by a presumed Rwandan drone, along with the deployment of a mobile surface-to-air missile system on Congolese territory by the Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF) and Rwanda’s change in its “official security posture”  point towards a important risk of escalation into a wider regional war. Such an escalation would threaten widening the theater of combat into currently untouched areas of South Kivu, including the city of Bukavu and the agriculturally significant Ruzizi Plains. Diplomatic pressure has increased on the two sides to “walk back from the brink” of a regional war. Ongoing peace talks aligned with the Luanda process seem unlikely to be fruitful in the short term following a mini-summit in Addis Ababa last weekend and bilateral talks between the DRC and Angolan governments scheduled in Luanda next week. 

Read below for information about these developments and more.

The War in North Kivu

• Around 2 AM on Saturday, February 17, a drone, presumed to be from Rwanda struck the Goma Airport, targeting a FARDC Sukhoi Su-27. According to the FARDC, no damage was inflicted upon the Su-27, although two civilian aircraft (from the aviation companies CAA and Busy Bee Congo) were damaged.
• Clashes between a faction of Wazalendo (“Patriots” in Swahili) and FARDC soldiers left 5 dead, including 2 Wazalendu and 3 FARDC, on the outskirts of Goma on Sunday, February 18. This is not the first time that there have been clashes within the government coalition. On November 12th, six civilians were killed after a “dispute” broke out between FARDC soldiers and Wazalendo militiamen.
• On Monday, February 19, 1 child was killed and 4 more people were wounded when a presumed-M23 bomb struck the town of Sake. 
• Fighting continued throughout the week along different fronts. On Tuesday, February 20th, fighting was concentrated around the village of Bweremana in Masisi territory, forcing the population to take refuge in Minova (Kalehe, South Kivu). Fighting flared on the Nyiragongo front in the morning of Wednesday, February 21st in Kibumba and Kihumba – very close to the Rwandan border. According to local civil society sources, the M23 uses moments of fighting to smuggle minerals across the border to Rwanda. 
• Following the arrests last week of senior ANR (Agence nationale de renseignement – the Congolese National Intelligence Agency) agents in North Kivu, there were false reports that Peter Cirimwami, the military governor of North Kivu, was arrested for complicity with Rwanda.  
• In the last two weeks, food price increases and shortages have been reported in Goma and Bukavu due to the advance of the M23 which has cut off the last remaining artery (RN 2) between Sake and Minova. 

Peace Process and the Regional Context

• Over the weekend of February 16-18, a mini-summit was held in Addis Ababa with the Presidents of the DRC and Rwanda, along with the African Union’s chief mediator, Angolan President João Lourenço. Notably, there was no handshake between President Felix Tshisekedi of the DRC and President Paul Kagame of Rwanda, pointing to the poor state of relations between the two men. This meeting will be followed up next week with bilateral discussions between DRC President Tshisekedi and Angolan President Lourenço in Luanda. 
• Rwanda later issued a statement to make clear and update its “security posture”, stating that they take the Congolese President’s words (made during the campaign) “at their word” and will therefore take measures necessary to ensure Rwanda’s security, including by boosting air defense systems and weakening the DRC’s “offensive air capabilities”. They also have appealed to the UN to block UN logistical support for the SADC Deployment, saying that they fear it could spark a  wider regional conflict (see Pg 1, Pg 2, Pg 3 and Pg 4).
• The African Union Chairman called upon the leaders of the DRC and Rwanda “to prioritize the dialogue in the framework of the two African mechanisms” to find a settlement for the political differences between the countries. The United Nations Special Representative to the DRC, Bintou Keita, the US and French governments have issued similar statements calling for the de-escalation of the crisis.

Ituri

• 15 civilians were killed on Saturday, February 17 in Tali village, Djugu territory when they were “ambushed” by CODECO militants. According to witnesses, most of the victims were from the Hema community, whereas the CODECO come from the Lendu community. On Monday, the military territorial administrator condemned this attack.
• 13 people were killed on Saturday, February 17 in twin ADF attacks in the southern part of Irumu territory in Ituri. According to a local NGO, the majority of those killed were Pygmy women. 
• A local radio journalist was murdered by a presumed FARDC soldier just outside of Komanda in Irumu territory on the evening of February 21st. The soldier was allegedly drunk when he fired five rounds into Kambale Kitsa Fidèle, the Program Director for Radio Communautaire Umoja.

Politics

• Resignation of Sama Lukonde: On Tuesday, Sama Lukonde resigned from his post as Prime Minister. Under the Congolese constitution, ministers must choose whether or not they want to keep their cabinet functions or return to their seat in the National Assembly. The Prime Minister has opted for the latter. Vital Kamerhe (Vice Prime Minister of the Economy), along with a number of other high level ministers, also resigned for the same reason. However, President Tshisekedi declared that he would be able to remain PM until a new government is formed. 
• Peter Kazadi, the Minister of the Interior, issued a communication on Friday, February 16 that the provincial assemblies of Ituri and North Kivu will not be installed before the lifting of the état de siège. 
• Augustin Kabuya, the secretary of the ruling UDPS, is charged with finding the right formula to form a new government.
• In a Thursday news conference, President Felix Tshisekedi clarified that dialogue with Rwanda remains the preferred option for resolving the current crisis, but that he would not hesitate to use force if his “hand was forced”. He also denied having ever met a M23 delegation in Kinshasa. He also called on demonstrators to not attack diplomatic missions after violent demonstrations in Kinshasa in recent weeks. 
• Gentiny Ngobila, the governor of Kinshasa, will appear before the General Prosecutor’s Office at the Court of Cassation on Friday on charges of electoral fraud.

Other News

• Anti-West tinted demonstrations continued throughout the week in Goma, Bukavu, and Uvira against the war in North Kivu and the perception that the west is either directly supporting Rwanda, or at least not doing enough to pressure Rwanda. 
• Charges of western duplicity were reinforced this week with the signature of a framework agreement between the European Union and the Government of Rwanda on a “transparent” minerals export scheme. This drew a swift rebuke from many sources, including Nobel Laureate Denis Mukwege and the activist group Lutte pour le changement (LUCHA). Considering credible allegations, supported by the UN Group of Experts, that the M23 are smuggling Congolese minerals into Rwanda, and the recent arms deal between Poland, an EU member state, and Rwanda, this is likely to contribute to intensified scrutiny of the “West” at a time where the Congolese public’s perception of countries such as the United States, France, and the United Kingdom are very low.
• Stanis Bujakera, a Congolese journalist who has been detained on charges of sharing “reports deemed false” since September 2023, will appear in court on Friday, February 23rd in Kinshasa. While he has previously refused to get involved in the case, citing the separation of powers between the judiciary and the executive, President Tshisekedi, during the Thursday Press Conference stated, “our justice gives me a lot of worry… it is sick even in processing files. I think he [Stanis Bujakera] is a victim of that”, perhaps opening the door for the journalist’s release.