Bottom Line

President Félix Tshisekedi’s proposed national dialogue dominated the political agenda, but the initiative immediately exposed the depth of the political divide: the C64 opposition coalition rejected the process and announced a September protest, while figures including Vital Kamerhe and elements of civil society backed engagement. In the east, meanwhile, fighting continued on multiple AFC/M23 fronts in Walikale and Mwenga, underscoring the gap between national-level dialogue initiatives and conditions on the ground.

The rapidly expanding Ebola outbreak remains the other major national concern, with vaccination beginning in Tshopo, a new treatment centre operating in Beni, and attacks on health facilities complicating the response in Butembo. On the economic front, implementation of the Lobito Corridor continues to advance, with Kinshasa positioning the Dilolo–Sakania railway concession as the backbone of a broader industrial and regional trade corridor.

Politics & Governance

Opposition rejects Tshisekedi’s proposed national dialogue

The Coalition Article 64 (C64) — bringing together opposition figures including Martin Fayulu, Moïse Katumbi, Jean-Marc Kabund and Augustin Matata Ponyo — rejected President Tshisekedi’s proposed national dialogue, arguing that the planned provincial consultations do not constitute the genuinely inclusive dialogue required to address the country’s political and security crises. The coalition announced a national march for 15 September, potentially turning opposition to the process into a broader political mobilisation.

Tshisekedi has said consultations will begin across the 26 provinces before culminating in Kinshasa, presenting the decentralised approach as a way to build the process from communities upward. He has nevertheless maintained the exclusion of the AFC/M23, arguing that groups waging war against the Republic cannot participate as ordinary political actors.

Why it matters: The dialogue is rapidly becoming a test of political legitimacy rather than simply a mechanism for de-escalation. The government’s ability to attract meaningful opposition participation will determine whether it becomes a genuinely national process or primarily consolidates actors already aligned with Tshisekedi.

There were competing signals elsewhere in the political landscape. Vital Kamerhe publicly supported the initiative, while the national civil-society consultation framework welcomed the announcement and said it would convene a preparatory meeting in Kinshasa.

Conflict & Security

Fighting continues across AFC/M23 fronts in North and South Kivu

In Walikale territory, North Kivu, FARDC and allied Wazalendo forces reportedly repelled an AFC/M23 attempt to advance from positions around Ihula and Malemo toward Mindjendje and Mpety. Heavy weapons were reportedly used, and the security situation in the Kisimba groupement remained tense on Friday.

Further south, significant fighting broke out around Point Zéro in the Itombwe highlands of Mwenga territory, pitting AFC/M23 and allied forces against FARDC and Wazalendo. Point Zéro is strategically located between the Fizi and Mwenga areas and had fallen to AFC/M23-aligned forces in July.

These developments follow fighting around Nzibira in Walungu, where clashes since 20 August have driven substantial civilian displacement from Nzibira, Lutunkulu and Luhago.

Assessment: The geographically dispersed fighting indicates that the conflict remains fluid despite ongoing Doha and Washington diplomatic tracks. The Walikale and Mwenga fronts are particularly worth watching: sustained AFC/M23 pressure in either direction could alter access and territorial control beyond the movement’s principal Goma–Bukavu axis.

Civil-society activists released in Fizi

Six civil-society and business representatives detained after protesting an allegedly illegal FARDC roadblock in Baraka, Fizi territory, were released after approximately two weeks in detention. Local civil society says the barrier required motorcycles to pay 5,000 Congolese francs and has linked the incident to broader complaints about military roadblocks and extortion along the Uvira–Fizi axis.

Health & Humanitarian

Ebola response expands as outbreak spreads

The Ebola outbreak continues to widen geographically. Vaccination began in Tshopo on 28 August, initially targeting frontline medical personnel and response workers. Provincial authorities reported a rising number of confirmed cases, including transmission extending beyond imported cases.

In Beni, MSF and the Ministry of Health opened a new Ebola Treatment Centre to increase isolation and treatment capacity. MSF reported that the outbreak had spread across six provinces by 22 August and described it as the largest Ebola outbreak yet recorded in the DRC.

The response is simultaneously facing serious community-resistance problems. Four health facilities in Butembo have been burned within approximately one month, with several attacks occurring amid rumours linking health facilities to the Ebola response.

In Mambasa, Ituri, MONUSCO has meanwhile deployed a mobile operating base at Niania specifically to help secure Ebola treatment centres, health personnel and response teams in an area already affected by ADF activity.

Why it matters: Ebola is increasingly becoming a combined public-health, security and trust crisis. Expansion into Tshopo, violence against health infrastructure in Butembo, and the need for peacekeepers to secure response operations in Mambasa all increase the difficulty and cost of containment.

Economy & Infrastructure

Lobito Corridor moves toward implementation

The government continued to promote the newly signed concession with Mota-Engil Africa covering the 1,004.5-km Dilolo–Sakania railway, the Congolese component of the Lobito Corridor. The project covers financing, rehabilitation, modernisation, operation and maintenance of the railway and is valued at approximately $1.258 billion.

Tshisekedi stressed that the government intends the corridor to support not only mineral exports but also local processing, agriculture, industrial development, passenger traffic and broader regional trade. The planned railway connects the Copperbelt through Kolwezi, Tenke and Lubumbashi with Dilolo and onward through Angola to Lobito.

Assessment: This is becoming one of the DRC’s most consequential infrastructure projects. The central question will be whether the corridor develops into the broader industrial and logistics platform Kinshasa is describing, or remains primarily an export route for Copperbelt minerals.

Government announces $2.4 million programme for waterways

The Fonds de régulation économique (FOREC) and Régie des voies fluviales (RVF) **signed a $2.4 million agreement intended to improve approximately 2,300 km of navigable waterways through dredging, marking, obstruction removal and related works.

Mining ministry highlights community-development revenues

The Ministry of Mines reported that $349.2 million has been mobilised from 44 mining companies through statutory community-development contributions, supporting 521 approved projects, of which 335 are reported completed. The figures form part of the ministry’s assessment of its first year under Louis Watum.

Separately, Kambove Mining reported divergent production trends in the first half of 2026: copper cathode output increased 7.4% to 20,608 tonnes, while cobalt contained in hydroxide fell 72.3% to 72 tonnes, reportedly reflecting lower cobalt grades.

What to Watch

Three issues stand out heading into the coming days.

The politics of national dialogue. The 15 September opposition march announced by C64 provides the first clear mobilisation point around the dispute. The key indicator will be whether other opposition actors join the rejection of Tshisekedi’s process or choose to participate in the provincial consultations.

The evolution of the eastern fronts. Walikale and the Mwenga–Fizi axis merit particular attention. Continued fighting will provide an important indication of whether the diplomatic tracks underway in Doha and Washington are producing any meaningful restraint on the ground.

The Ebola trajectory. The immediate questions are whether transmission continues to expand geographically and whether vaccination and increased treatment capacity can begin to contain the outbreak. Community resistance — particularly attacks on health facilities and personnel — remains a significant complicating factor.